Gelatt, T. & Lowry, L. (IUCN SSC Pinniped Specialist Group)
Kovacs, K. & Lowry, L. (Pinniped Red List Authority)
The eastern and western stocks of Steller Sea Lions are showing opposite trends, with slight increases in the east and renewed declines in the west. The causes of the severe decline of the western stock of Steller Sea Lions during the 1970s and 1980s remain unknown, although some causes have been eliminated as likely threats to recovery. The global population of Steller Sea Lions qualifies for Endangered (EN) status because of the overall global decline of 54% in the last three generations. It is particularly concerning that the cause of the declines has not yet been identified.
IUCN Evaluation of the Steller Sea Lions, Eumetopias jubatus
Prepared by the Pinniped Specialist Group
A. Population reduction Declines measured over the longer of 10 years or 3 generations
A1 CR > 90%; EN > 70%; VU > 50%
Al. Population reduction observed, estimated, inferred, or suspected in the past where the causes of the reduction are clearly reversible AND understood AND have ceased, based on and specifying any of the following:
(a) direct observation
(b) an index of abundance appropriate to the taxon
(c) a decline in area of occupancy (AOO), extent of occurrence (EOO) and/or habitat quality
(d) actual or potential levels of exploitation
(e) effects of introduced taxa, hybridization, pathogens, pollutants, competitors or parasites.
Generation time in Steller Sea Lions is approximately 10 years. Steller Sea Lions have experienced a dramatic decline over the last three generations (30 years) but the causes are not clearly reversible, nor understood (global decline is, however, not > 50%). The decline has slowed and even stopped in some areas but still persists in others such as the western Aleutians.
A2, A3 & A4 CR > 80%; EN > 50%; VU > 30%
A2. Population reduction observed, estimated, inferred, or suspected in the past where the causes of reduction may not have ceased OR may not be understood OR may not be reversible, based on (a) to (e) under A1.
Steller Sea Lions experienced a dramatic overall decline between about 1970 and 2000 (three generations). The population has been split into two stocks with the eastern stock showing a 3% increase while the western stock declined at a rate as high as 15% annually in the 1980s and overall declined about 70% between the late 1970s and 1990. The overall reduction in abundance of the species between the mid 1970s and 2007 is estimated to be 54%. The reasons for the precipitous declines of the past two decades and the continued, slowed decline is unknown and may not be reversible. The Steller sea lion therefore meets the criterion for Endangered.
A3. Population reduction projected or suspected to be met in the future (up to a maximum of 100 years) based on (b) to (e) under A1.
The overall population of Steller Sea Lions has increased slightly since 2000 due to a continued 3% per year increase in the eastern stock and a slowing of the decline in the western stock. However, if the trend analysis includes data from prior to 2000 the predicted future trend would be negative.
A4. An observed, estimated, inferred, projected or suspected population reduction (up to a maximum of 100 years) where the time period must include both the past and the future, and where the causes of reduction may not have ceased OR may not be understood OR may not be reversible, based on (a) to (e) under A1.
Steller sea lions have experienced a population reduction and this reduction could continue into the future for unknown causes
B. Geographic range in the form of either B1 (extent of occurrence) AND/OR B2 (area of occupancy)
B1. Extent of occurrence (EOO): CR
The EOO of Steller Sea Lions is >20,000 km²
B2. Area of occupancy (AOO): CR
The AOO of Steller Sea Lions is > 2,000 km².
AND at least 2 of the following:
(a) Severely fragmented, OR number of locations: CR = 1; EN
(b) Continuing decline in any of: (i) extent of occurrence; (ii) area of occupancy; (iii) area, extent and/or quality of habitat; (iv) number of locations or subpopulations; (v) number of mature individuals.
(c) Extreme fluctuations in any of: (i) extent of occurrence; (ii) area of occupancy; (iii) number of locations or subpopulations; (iv) number of mature individuals.
C. Small population size and decline
Number of mature individuals: CR
Both segments of the Steller Sea Lion population exceed 10,000 mature individuals.
AND either C1 or C2:
C1. An estimated continuing decline of at least: CR = 25% in 3 years or 1 generation; EN = 20% in 5 years or 2 generations; VU = 10% in 10 years or 3 generations (up to a max. of 100 years in future)
C2. A continuing decline AND (a) and/or (b):
(a i) Number of mature individuals in each subpopulation: CR
or
(a ii) % individuals in one subpopulation: CR = 90–100%; EN = 95–100%; VU = 100%
(b) Extreme fluctuations in the number of mature individuals.
D. Very small or restricted population
Number of mature individuals: CR AND/OR restricted area of occupancy typically: AOO
Both segments of the Steller Sea Lion population exceed 1,000 mature individuals.
E. Quantitative analysis
Indicating the probability of extinction in the wild to be: CR > 50% in 10 years or 3 generations (100 years max.); EN > 20% in 20 years or 5 generations (100 years max.); VU > 10% in 100 years
There have been many population viability analyses conducted on Steller Sea Lions. Results have been consistent and indicate that if only the western segment of the population is considered it has a high probability of declining to a low level. Even the most conservative analyses found that the probability of quasi-extinction of the western segment within 100 years was approximately 10%. However, since the eastern segment is showing an increase, it is likely that for the entire population of Steller Sea Lions, the probability of extinction is
Listing recommendation — The eastern and western stocks of Steller Sea Lions are showing opposite trends, with slight increases in the east and renewed declines in the west. The causes of the severe decline of the western stock of Steller Sea Lions during the 1970s and 1980s remain unknown, although some causes have been eliminated as likely threats to recovery. The global population of Steller Sea Lions qualifies for Endangered (EN) status because of the general, overall level of decline from 1957-2007 of 54% (criterion A2a), and the continued decline, for unknown reasons in the western stock.