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Drought offers a glimpse of the "new normal"

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Drought conditions prompted fishing closures on numerous rivers throughout Washington yesterday, including several in North Puget Sound.

The Stillaguamish River is one of the rivers in the Puget Sound region closed to fishing. Photo by Walter Siegmund.
The Stillaguamish River is one of the rivers in the Puget Sound region closed to fishing. Photo by Walter Siegmund.

Drought conditions prompted fishing closures on numerous rivers throughout Washington yesterday, including several in North Puget Sound. Low streamflows this summer mean increased water temperatures dangerous to fish like trout and salmon. Climate experts say this year's conditions are a preview of things to come.

What is now considered "low" water may become normal by about 2050, according to figures from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. The figures are based on 2015's higher than average winter temperatures. Those were about 5.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average and contributed to the low snowpack and scarce runoff we are seeing this summer. The same scenario may be common as soon as 2050 and highly likely (with at least a 75% chance) by 2080.

The Climate Impacts Group sends this data:

When will the temperatures of winter 2015 be "the new normal"?                                                    

Notes:

(1) Winter is defined as the average temperature for December through February
(2) All results are relative to the average for 1970-1999
(3) All results are for the average over the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and Idaho).
(4) According to NCDC (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/) the average temperature for Dec-Feb 2015 was 5.6 degF above the average for 1970-1999
(5) The year listed for each model is the year when the future 30-year average is 5.6 degF warmer than the average for 1970-1999 (i.e.: when will the conditions we saw this winter be "the new normal")
(6) RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathways, a measure of greenshouse gases.                            

                            RCP 4.5    RCP 8.5  

Minimum:             2047         2036                                            
10th percentile:    2048         2042                                            
25th percentile:    2062         2049                                            
50th percentile:    2074         2059                                            
75th percentile:    2082         2065                                            
90th percentile:    2090         2071                                            
Maximum:             2094         2099