Drought offers a glimpse of the "new normal"
Drought conditions prompted fishing closures on numerous rivers throughout Washington yesterday, including several in North Puget Sound.
Drought conditions prompted fishing closures on numerous rivers throughout Washington yesterday, including several in North Puget Sound. Low streamflows this summer mean increased water temperatures dangerous to fish like trout and salmon. Climate experts say this year's conditions are a preview of things to come.
What is now considered "low" water may become normal by about 2050, according to figures from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. The figures are based on 2015's higher than average winter temperatures. Those were about 5.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average and contributed to the low snowpack and scarce runoff we are seeing this summer. The same scenario may be common as soon as 2050 and highly likely (with at least a 75% chance) by 2080.
The Climate Impacts Group sends this data:
When will the temperatures of winter 2015 be "the new normal"?
Notes:
(1) Winter is defined as the average temperature for December through February
(2) All results are relative to the average for 1970-1999
(3) All results are for the average over the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and Idaho).
(4) According to NCDC (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/) the average temperature for Dec-Feb 2015 was 5.6 degF above the average for 1970-1999
(5) The year listed for each model is the year when the future 30-year average is 5.6 degF warmer than the average for 1970-1999 (i.e.: when will the conditions we saw this winter be "the new normal")
(6) RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathways, a measure of greenshouse gases.
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
Minimum: 2047 2036
10th percentile: 2048 2042
25th percentile: 2062 2049
50th percentile: 2074 2059
75th percentile: 2082 2065
90th percentile: 2090 2071
Maximum: 2094 2099
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